Analysts like to paint the future in vivid colors and come up with a new “trend” every minute. These trends have turned into a long line of odd buzzwords you find on a lot of company sales, marketing and even strategy presentations.
But wait a minute – are analysts really able to foresee the future?
I hope you are not too shocked, if I tell you - they are not.
And, even worse, they do fail from time to time!
I have always wondered that none of them keeps a record which of their analytic reports turned into reality and which not. Somehow strange, or?!?
In addition, I remember times, when I was told to write software factories, because everybody will be doing this, starting then. A few years have passed, and nobody is doing software factories, or?
In parallel, no analyst foresaw the game changing effect of the IPhone, they even were surprised. So, how could that happen?
While the fact to deduct trends from current data is an important instrument when making business decisions, I do quite often miss a sub-note that these findings are projected and may not come true. They also may not be the only influence factors for whatever you are planning.
Instead, analyst reports are used as sole proof to underpin presented plans or product strategies.
This is the moment when my personal alarm bell rings!
It is good to have analyst data, but it is even more important to use your common sense to determine, if that data is correct and which other things might happen while you are doing, what you are planning to do.
This is not easy, this is hard and needs to be done by skillful people with good insight and deep knowledge of the market you want to play in. In addition, it shows excellence, if they have their own ideas and are opinionated how to create better products or find better ways to handle processes.
Especially, if I find the later during a company/vendor presentation, there is a good chance that they are able to convince me.
If not, and they are just spamming my mind with analyst data, I cannot avoid the impression that they do not have a clue, what they are talking about.
Tune–in for my next blog post, where I am going to put the first buzz-word on the stage. It will be “Consumerization of IT”.
I would be delighted to get Your feedback and comments regarding my view so keep them rolling.
And rest assured, I am not always right, either. 🙂