Predictions 2010

13 01 2010

I have not been so bad with my predictions last year. Well, so let me give it a try for 2010, as well:

  • Crisis, what crisis? (For those remembering the Supertramp Album released a long time ago I am listening to while I am writing this.) 2010 might take us through recession, if we are innovative, work hard, deliver honest work for honest pay and do not bet our businesses on values that are not there.
    We need to stay with those old virtues in business, if we want to avoid the next balloon collapsing.
    Nevertheless, the IT market has been relatively unimpressed last year and might this year turn into one of the verticals helping economy to get back on firm ground.
  • There is an interesting fight going on in embedded hardware market: Which technology is going to make the race? On the one side there is Intel with its Atom family trying hard to get into the low power / mobile segment on the other side there are the ARM based cores getting into performance regions old PC hardware has been several years ago.
    My prediction is that this year Intel will not be able to break into ARMs domain, because power consumptions, especially of the chipsets, not the processor alone, is still to high. But, ARM guys be wary, running the same apps, driver etc. on desktop as well as your mobile device is a compelling thought to everybody.
  • Looking at mobile operating systems it is a win or fail situation for Microsoft this year. It would not be good to wait too long with the desired release of Windows Mobile 7. On the other hand this release need to deliver more than the currently available functionality in the market to be convincing. It is certainly interesting to see what is coming. My prediction is that Microsoft will release an exciting Mobile 7 version in the second half of the year.
    Btw. my current phone is a HTC Touch “LEO” based on Mobile 6.5 (Windows Phone) which absolutely is on par with the IPhone looking at functionality. The only thing I am missing is that its appstore, sorry Marketplace, does not have the same number of offerings, yet.
  • 2010 will see the release of Windows Embedded Standard 2011. This is exciting, because it is the first Microsoft embedded OS based on Windows 7. And certainly will drive OEMs to create stunning new devices based on this platform. Silverlight, .NET client profiles, Sensor & Location platform, Device Profile Web Services (DPWS), etc. are just a few buzz words to mention here.
  • Oh yes, Silverlight. I think this technology is getting better and better and might have a smashing breakthrough with its version 4.0 launched with Visual Studio 2010 later this year. This is certainly something to watch more closely from a developers perspective. Run your applications in or out of browser on Macs as well as PCs and maybe even on those dreadful Linux systems, if it cannot be avoided. 🙂
  • DPWS, Device Profile Web Services could also be an important infrastructure technology especially for mobile and embedded devices. It has all to enable self-configuring network of connected devices. Nevertheless, there still is some lack of tool support which might prevent a major breakthrough this year. As a good start a managed version of the stack is part of Windows Embedded Standard 2011.
  • .NET MicroFramework. This absolutely cool technology nearly has been buried by Microsoft last year, until it found a new home in the Visual Studio division. .NET MF is a sturdy little thing! It came back as an open source version and I predict a slow but steady adoption by OEMs, which might turn into a smashing success mid-term.

That is all I can think of right now. If I have forgotten something major, just tell me.

A great start into the New Year to everybody!






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